What does the term 'most probable sequence of events' mean in causation analysis?

• A. The ordered set of events and causal factors that best explains the accident based on evidence and expert judgment.
• B. The exact sequence of events proven beyond doubt.
• C. A rough guess without evidence.
• D. A narrative approved by authorities without data.

Answer: (A)

In causation analysis, the most probable sequence of events is the ordered set of events and causal factors that best explains the accident given the available evidence and the judgment of experts. It means building a coherent, time-ordered narrative that links conditions, actions, failures, and environmental factors in a way that fits physical data, maintenance records, flight data, communications, and human performance. This explanation is the one most strongly supported by the facts, while acknowledging that absolute certainty is rare. It’s constructed to be testable against the evidence and open to revision if new information appears, and it’s developed by weighing alternative explanations to find the one with the strongest evidential support.